The Riksbank normally moves in tandem with the ECB and the Fed but in 2002 and 2010 they outhiked other central banks. In the years after, the Riksbank had to fight a too low inflation (a stronger krona led to lower imported inflation and a struggling export sector which affected inflation, also note that the appreciation took place in spite of the fact that market did expect the Riksbank to hike more than ECB/Fed). Moreover, contrary to the general perception the Swedish yield curve flattened from six months before first hike up to the months after, especially relative to EUR and USD curves.
The market pricing suggests that the Fed is more or less done hiking in 2019 with above two hikes priced in 2018 and only one additional hike priced in 2019. If the Fed ends rate increases in 2019, it is likely that something has happened with the US growth/inflation picture. The recovery in Europe (including Sweden) has clearly benefited from the improvements seen in the US economy over the past few years but if the US economy slows down beyond 2019, will the ECB and Riksbank be able to continue hiking as current market pricing suggests?
In Sweden, there is a chance that the Riksbank could hike in one or possibly two small steps in 2018 before reality catches up (inflation/growth). If the repo rate is hiked in 2018 it would, according to what history tells us, trigger the yield curve to flatten in Sweden. The fragile housing market and the record high interest rate sensitivity among households are factors in strong support of such a view.
One way to play the contrasting history relative to current market pricing, despite a short-term hawkish Riksbank, is to flatten the steep SEK curve out to 5Y relative to the very flat USD curve beyond 2019 :
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