'People are going to die' - West warned over covert Russian cyber attacks

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Cyber attacks are likely to lead to casualties, Latvia's foreign minister has warned

Covert Russian cyber attacks against Western countries could cause civilian fatalities and potentially escalate into a real-world military confrontation, Latvia’s foreign minister has warned.

Edgars Rinkevics told the Telegraph that Russia may use a massive war games in September to probe Nato’s resilience to full-spectrum “hybrid” warfare including propaganda and cyber attacks that Moscow has previously used against Ukraine.  

And he warned that deaths from deniable cyber attacks designed to test the “resilience and resolve” of the West by hitting key infrastructure like power grids could start a dangerous cycle of retaliation.  

Russian paratroopers march in Moscow
Russian paratroopers march in Moscow Credit: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP

“What I am rather worried about is that this hidden cyber warfare can escalate to a level of cyber warfare where we are not going to talk about bank attacks or ransom payments,” he said.

“At some point people are going to die,” Mr Rinkevics said. “If you get security systems down or hospitals left without power, then I am afraid that such kind of activity could provoke a very real military build up.”

“My concern is that at some point we are going to detect that there have been casualties because of cyber attacks, and we are able to trace where they came from. Then the situation can get much more tense.

“It is not going to be like 1914 or 1939, with large masses of soldiers and military equipment coming over the borders. I think we should be looking at that and we should be much better prepared,” he said.

A Ukrainian bank machine disabled in a cyber attack in June 2017. 
A Ukrainian bank machine disabled in a cyber attack in June 2017.  Credit:  STEPAN FRANKO/EPA

Western governments believe Russia has carried out several increasingly sophisticated cyber attacks against other countries since a massive denial of service attack against Estonia in 2007.

In December 2015, a suspected Russian hack shut down part of the Ukrainian electricity grid.

In June this year sabotage software disguised as “ransomware” shut down businesses, government departments, and even airports in Ukraine before spreading around the world.

That attack prompted Nato to warn that a cyber attack on one of its members could trigger Article Five, the alliance’s mutual defence clause, in the same way as a conventional military attack.  

The Kremlin has denied carrying out cyber attacks on other countries.

Latvian foreign minister Edgars Rinkevics
Latvian foreign minister Edgars Rinkevics Credit: ATTILA KISBENEDEK/AFP

Information security experts believe that most countries, including the UK, maintain an offensive cyber capability.

Mr Renkevics said he expects Russia to further hone its cyber and other "hybrid" capabilities for potential conflict against the West later this month.

The Zapad (West) 2017 exercise will see Russian and Belarusian troops practice the outbreak of war with illegal armed groups backed by an imaginary “coalition of interested states” called Weisbaria, Weistoria and Lubinia.

On the scenario map the imaginary countries correspond to Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, Maj Gen Oleg Belokonev, chief of the Belarusian general staff, said last week.

Belarussian Deputy Defence Minister Oleg Belokonev gives a briefing on the Zapad 2017 joint war games with Russia, in Minsk
Belarussian Deputy Defence Minister Oleg Belokonev gives a briefing on the Zapad 2017 joint war games with Russia, in Minsk Credit:  VASILY FEDOSENKO/Reuters

Russia says the exercise is entirely defensive. Its defence ministry has said 12,700 troops will take part in the drills in Belarus and Russia’s  Kaliningrad, Pskov and Leningrad regions between September 14 and 20.

However, Western analysts believe they are occurring simultaneously with other exercises across Western Russia that could involve up to 100,000 troops.

“We are under no illusions about the Zapad 2017 exercise. It is not a defensive exercise - it is an offensive exercise in its nature,” said Mr Rinkevics.  

But he added: “We are always fixated on planes and tanks and military movements, but we see it as a larger scale, broader exercise, not only military,” he said.

Russian military jets performing in Alabino, outside Moscow
Russian military jets performing in Alabino, outside Moscow Credit: Pavel Golovkin/AP

“There is a probability that it is larger than simply a conventional military exercise. We cannot rule out incidents and provocations that  include testing our defences in cyberspace,” he said.  

Lt. Gen. Alexander Fomin, a deputy Russian defence minister, said last week that the drills have an “absolutely defensive character” and that speculation they would lead to invasion of neighbouring countries bore “no relation to reality.”

Belarus and Russia have both invited observers to the exercise, although some Westerm officials have complained that Russia has only offered access to the last stage of the war games. 

Earlier this year Nato deployed battalion-sized battle groups to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia to deter potential Russian military adventurism.

 

 

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